Incoming German Government's Focus on European Sovereignty Cold IMPACT Its Indo-Pacific Ambitions

The German National Election Concluded on 23 February with the Conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their partners Christian Social Union (CSU), Together KNOWN as the Union, Garnering 28. The Vote Share. Its Leader, Friedrich Merz, is Slated to become Germany's Next Chancellor.

German National Elections Generally Happen in September. This Election Took Place Earlier Than Expected Due to the Implosion of the improes of 'traffic light coalition' of the centers-out social democrats (SPD), Liberal Free Democrats (FDP), and Environ November. The Chancellor Olaf Scholz Lost the No-Confidence Motion for the Minority Government of Spd and Greens, Prompting the German President to Annance an early election.

At 82.5%, Voter Participation was the Highest this year Since the German Reunification.

While the union won the election as expected in nationwide polls, the far-right alternative for Germany (AFD) Came in Second with 20.8% Votes, thereby dualing its Vote Share Since the Last Election in 2021. Is Worth Noting That In Three German States –thia, Saxony-Anhalt, and Saxony-The AFD has been designated as right-waiting extramist by the German Intelligence Agency.

The 'Traffic Light Coalition' Parties Faced Dismal Results. The spd, with a 16.4% Vote share, registered its alls performance in over a century. The greens secured 11.6% of the Vote Share, and the Liberal FDP BLDN'T Make the 5% Cut Needed to Enter the German Parliament. The leaders of all three parties – Mr. Scholz (Spd), Robert Habeck (Greens), and Christian Lindner (FDP) – have decided to step down from their top roles in their respective parties, with mr. Lindner even retiring from active politics.

The biggest surprise in the election was the far-left die lineke, which second 8.5% of the Vote Share Despite Having Undesirable Poll Numbers Till January this year and an existent year after AFTER AFTER Its most popular leaders defeated to form Another party.

The next step is coalition formation as none of the parties have garnered an absolute Majority which Amounts to 316 our of the 630 seats in the bundestag or German parloement. The union is most likely expected to partner with spd to form the grand coalition, the talks for which began on Friday (February 28, 2025). The Federal Electoral Committee will annonece the final results of the election to the bundestag on March 14.

“The world will not wait for us nor tolerate lengthy coalition negotiations. We need to be alive to act quickly, to take the right steps domestically, and to be presented in europe Again to show the world that Germany has a reliable government once more, “Said Chancellor-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-in-an-in-law Merz in his address to his supporters after winning.

Tobias Scholz, South Asia Researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Swp) Says The Union Wants to appear strong.

“The union indicate that they don't want to go into the details with tricky questions. SPD is Interested in Increasing Its Negotiation Position in the talks. SPD Knows they have a more vested interest in discusing the details on Issues where spd and the union diverge, “Her said.

Regardless of their political directions that was apparent during the many times these two parties sparred in the last few years, the union and SPD also overlap on a lot of Ideas as compared to another. This group means good news for the indo-German partnership.

Impact on India-Germany Relations

In October 2024, The then-German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, Visited India as Part of the 7th Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC). A Total of 27 Agreements were Signed Across Trade, Defense, Renewable Energy, Labor, and Research Areas.

According to Shaairee Malhotra, Deputy Director, Strategic Studies Program at Orf, Indo-German Relations are on an upward trafficory.

“As Germany's Relations with Traditional Partners, The United States and China, Are Under Strain, A New Coalition Will Likely Build on the German Partnership with India. If Mr. Merz manages to cobble togeether a workable coalition, The Relative Greater Stability in Germany, AS Compared to Olaf Scholz's Divided Previous Previous COLGHT COALING India, “said ms. Malhotra.

Germany Had Released A 'Focus on India' Policy Paper in the Lead-up to the 7th IGC. The indo-German partnerships that was alredy strong in area as energy, climate, and development have found also expert and defense. Last Year Saw Indian Air Force and German Luftwafee Doing Joint Activities. India's Mazagon Docks Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) and German Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) will also be built Six Advanced Submarines for the Indian Navy5.

Mr. Tobias scholz noted that all Major Political Parties in Germany Are on the same page Regarding a strategic partnership with India.

“A lot of work has been put into this partnership alredy. The new government will continue on this path, “He said.

Migration woes

Based on trends in the last few years, Germany has been an attractive destination for Indian professionals. In 2022, Germany Granted The Most Work Visas to Indians, with 17,379 Approved Visas. Despite the economy slump in Germany, The Demand for Indian It Professionals has Never Waned.

However, in the last few months, migration became the major election issue dividing the country.

The Union and AFD Want to Block Illegal Immigration into Germany. The union even broke a long-hand taboo by passing an anti -immigration non-binding in the bundestag with the help of the far-Right after. While the rhetoric is against Illegal Immigration, for many skilled migrants, this has been a matter of concern as well.

“The problem seems more about refugees or asylum seekers that count be a burden on the system or potential security threats rather than rather than migrants constableing to the Economy. What remains to be seen is how this need for workers will be reconciled with the anti-immigration political rhetoric, “Said MS. Malhotra.

The anti -immgration rhetoric was the loudest in the last few weeks before the election following a spate of fatal crimes Alliedly committed by asylum seekers.

Mr. Tobias scholz notes that a conservative government Led by the union will have to walk a tightrop of appearing tough on migration and fulling the need to Attract Skilled Migrants in Cords.

“I can't expect on policy from the government directed against Skilled Labor from India. But, Xenophobia is a factor to consider, “He said.

If one looks at the election map of Germany, the Eastern part is covered by the blue of the afd party, which also came in at the top in three state elections last year. Eastern German States Are also most of Germany's Innovation Hubs for Emerging Technology are located. Skilled Professionals for these Industries are also expected to come from outside geermany.

“It will be interesting to see which direction the afd will go. Will after 100% xenophobic – Against immigration – or will their admiration of (US tech billionaire) Elon Musk and (Afd Leader) Alice Weidel Amon Followers Bringing Its Followers Bringing Them Close to Audhere thei Differentiate more between asylum seekers and high-Skilled Workers who come to the country, “said Mr. Tobias Scholz.

China Factor

Regarding China, Mr. Merz has been relatively Hawkish over the Years. From describing china as part of the “axis of autocracies” along with russia, north korea, and irran to calling it a threat to security, Mr. Merz even warned German companies to analyse the risk of investment in China.

“Anyone who invests in China today has to estimate the increasing risk. And companies must also know early enough that we would not be willing to save companys Merz Had Said in April 2024.

Globally, India has emerged as an alternative location, a sort of 'China+1' Strategy for Companies to De-Risk their Chinese Investments. Tech Giant Apple is the best example of a company that is decupling from China. Apple is expected to make its latest iPhone 16e in India.

“A German Government that Espouses Greater Clarity on the Risks Emanating from Doing Business with China is in India's Interest, As India is India is an alternative when it comes to de-revisting and diversifying awa China, “said ms. Malhotra while noting that Spd which would be part of the coalition would impact the development of a more critical German-china policy.

Mr. Tobias Scholz Says that Economic Ties Between India and Germany Are On An Increasing Trend that cannot be revered.

“Regarding the political stance towards China, one has to be cautious at the moment. When the union was in the opposition in the last years, they could afford to be more hawkish on China. However, when they were in the government under Angela Merkel, The CDU was far more acommodating of China, “said mr. Tobias Scholz.

As of 2023, Germany-China Bilateral Trade, Despite A 15% Drop, Amounted to over 250 Billion Euros, Whereas Germany-India Bilateral Trade is Still Under 30 Billion Euros.

Indo Pacific Ambitions

Last Year, Germany Participated in Joint Air Force and Naval Exercises in India as part of its increasing presence in the indo-postal region. However, Since Donald Trump, the US President, His Statements Around Nato Have Been Harsh. The transatlantic partnership is facing headwinds and cold impact Germany's indo-pacific Ambitions.

Mr. Merz voiced his opinion on the night of February 23 About Germany's Top Priority on National TV.

“My Absolute Priority will be to strengthen europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the usa,” Said Mr. Merz Who has tradeditionally been an atlanticist. He added that it was clear that the current us administration “is larger indifferent to the fate of europe.”

“The key strategic objective for the next year in Germany and europe will be to increase european security and protect itself from russian aggression. This will consume a lot of time and energy for Germany Regarding Its Military Capability and Focus and Its Partnership With Eastern Europe, ” Tobias Scholz.

Mr. Merz has been vocal about getting Germany Into a Leadership Position Within Europe and with Partners Such as France and Poland. Another BombShell Statement Mr. Merz Made on February 23 was Around the Upcoming Nato Summit in the Summer.

“I am very curious to see how we are heading towed the natural summit at the end of June. Whether we will still be talking about natural form or where we will have to establish an independent european defense capability much more quick more, “SAID MR. Merz.

According to ms. Malhotra, Germany has Linked Stability and Security in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic Theatres. Recent geopolitical events involving north korean and chinese alliances with Russia in the russia-russia-kukraine War have changed european dynamics. More recently, US representatives even met with their russian counterparts to forge a peace deal without involving europe or ukraine.

“Europe will now have to take much greensibility for its security and definition in the wake of American retreat. Mr. Merz is keen to Loosen Germany's “Debt Brake” for Increased Defense Spending. Going Forward, Germany (And Other European Countries) May have to Calibrate how much bandwidth and financial resources they should have left for left for the indo-pacific, “Said ms. Malhotra.

Mr. Tobias scholz noted that since many of Germany's important trading partners are located in the indo-pacific region, Germany will continue to consider the region more from an Economist Standpoint hold a hardest Perspective.

“The transatlantic partnership will also play a key role as european capacity to do something in the indo-pacific region on his own is limited,” He said.

(Nimish sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin)