With under two days to polling, 'dead heat' continues in US presidential election

This combination of file photos shows Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump. , Photo Credit: AP

With less than two days to go for the pivotal presidential election in the US, reputable pollsters in the country have called the race a “dead heat”. In opinion polls held nationally and very recently, Vice-President and Democrat Kamala Harris was narrowly ahead of former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump by a single percentage point (48.5% to 47.6% on average, according to pollster Nate Silver). These polls include those by NBC News and Emerson College projecting a 49%-49% tie nationally, Ipsos giving Ms. Harris a three-point lead (49%-46%) and AtlasIntel a two-point lead (50%-48%) to Mr. Trump. But the margins were even closer in the seven “battleground” States that could decide the winner of the electoral college and therefore the next President.

The New York Times-Siena polls, which enjoy one of the highest ratings in the polling analysis website 538.com, released a new set of polls that showed that Mr. Trump ahead of Ms. Harris in Arizona (49% vs 45%, the State carries 11 electoral votes) just beyond the error margin of roughly 3% points. But in the other six States, Ms. Harris was marginally ahead in four (Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia) and tied with Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania, which carries 19 electoral votes, and Michigan. The vote differences in all these six States between the two candidates were well within the error margin, suggesting that a marginal correction could mean a decisive victory for either candidate.

While Ms. Harris's numbers will still be encouraging considering the fact that Mr. Trump held a significant advantage in these States over President Joe Biden before his withdrawal from the race, the close margins in the “Blue Wall” States of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will give her campaign a lot of discomfort. These States are also termed the “Rust Belt” for being former manufacturing and industrial hubs and are currently experiencing relative urban decay.

For Ms. Harris to register a majority in the electoral college — 270 votes out of 538 — the clear-cut path will simply be a retention of these “Blue Wall” States even if she loses elsewhere. But a setback in the “Rust Belt” will require her to outperform Mr. Trump in the “Sun Belt”, States that are hot/sub-tropical and experiencing a population growth such as Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — the last of which was won by Mr. Trump in 2020.

A 'toss-up'

The NYT-Siena polls released on Sunday, the last of a series of such polls held recently, indicated that Ms. Harris was managing to keep the Sun Belt States competitive, but Mr. Trump was doing the same in the Rust Belt. This meant that the election was too close to call. Other highly rated pollsters such as “AtlasIntel” also indicated a close race in the swing States, albeit giving Mr. Trump has a slight advantage. Poll aggregators such as the statistician Nate Silver and 538.com have predicted that the election was a “toss-up” with both candidates enjoying a near-50% chance of winning.

The opinion polls in the run-up to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections had predicted comfortable margins for Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Mr. Biden, respectively, but Mr. Trump had polled significantly better in the actual election even if he did not win the popular vote. Many pollsters have re-weighted their samples to account for more Republican respondents in order to correct for the errors made in previous cycles. NYT-Siena, on the other hand, have stayed true to their method without any such “pre-weighting”.

Pollsters have indicated that the race between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump has been closer unlike the 2020 elections largely because the Democratic advantage among racial minorities has narrowed a bit with Mr. Trump gaining some voters among these sections, especially those who are not college-educated. Ms. Harris has however regained some support since Mr. Biden's withdrawal while improving her standing among white voters, especially women, with the abortion issue determining her higher support among them over Mr. Trump.

An indication of women voters helping Ms. Harris's chances were also made in a poll conducted by a highly rated pollster Ann Selzer and which found that Ms. Harris was leading Mr. Trump, 47%-44% in Iowa, which is widely considered a safe state for the Republicans. The NYT-Siena and the Iowa poll suggests that the victory for either candidate in the US presidential elections might boil down to relative turnout of key voting segments for the two parties.